Posted by JAC on 4/29/2009, 7:16 am

95W looks to develop as well but will move north and miss the Philippines. 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 138.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK AND CONFINED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. A 282050Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AROUND A TIGHTENING LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED (20 KNOT FLAGGED) WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT YAP IS 1008 MB WITH 1 MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THE WIND IS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 282323Z TRMM PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CURVING INTO THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSED BY SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.