Posted by CypressTX on 4/17/2009, 7:38 pm, in reply to "MD"

it was ugly here... 1 hr 15 minutes for a 22 mile drive home --Previous Message-- : : : MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501 : NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK : 0145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009 : : AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX. : : CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160... : : VALID 171845Z - 172045Z : : THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO : WATCH 160 CONTINUES. : : THOSE PORTIONS OF THIS WW BENEATH AND : AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS SHOULD BE : CONTINUED FOR TIME BEING. : : SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE FRONT NOW : QUASISTATIONARY FROM : OFFSHORE SABINE PASS WNWWD ACROSS SRN GLS : BAY AREA TO ITS : INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER : AUSTIN COUNTY. LOW LEVEL : SHEAR IS FAVORABLE...AND WILL REMAIN : SO...INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. STG : LLJ OF 50-55 KT REMAINS EVIDENT IN : HGX/LCH VWP...PERHAPS EXAGGERATED : SOMEWHAT BY MOTION OF BIRDS/BUGS IN THAT : LAYER...BASED ON : SEMICIRCULAR ANNULUS OF REFLECTIVITY IN : THAT LAYER FROM HGX RADAR : AND COMPARISONS WITH PRE-STORM LDB : PROFILER WINDS AND AREA RUC : SOUNDINGS. STILL...45-50 KT FLOW IS : LIKELY WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 1 : KM AGL...KEEPING HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED AND : 300-400 J/KG SRH IN THAT : LAYER. THICKENING ANVIL CLOUD COVER HAS : MITIGATED SFC : HEATING...CONTRIBUTING TO TENDENCY OF : SBCINH TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS : WW AREA INTO LA...AND MAKING EWD EXTENT : OF SVR THREAT MORE : UNCERTAIN/CONDITIONAL. STILL...MODIFIED : RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST : 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER AND JUST S OF : FRONT. TORNADO POTENTIAL : HAS BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN : INCREASED CINH AND MESSY STORM : STRUCTURES...BUT DOES STILL : EXIST...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS CROSS : THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE. SVR POTENTIAL IS : FCST TO DIMINISH WITH NWD : EXTENT FROM FRONT AS INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS : BECOME : PROGRESSIVELY/GRADUALLY MORE : ELEVATED...AND AS MUCAPE DECREASES. : : ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2009 : :