Posted by JAC on 4/15/2009, 8:07 am, in reply to "Nice Flare-Up"

BOB 01/2009/06 Dated: 15th April 2009 Time of issue: 1430 hours IST Sub: Deep depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal : - Pre cyclone watch The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 15th April 2009 near lat. 14.00 N and long. 87.50 E, about 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair, 600 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 850 km southwest of Pathein (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a north-northwesterly direction for some more time. Based on the latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, the estimated future track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below: Date/Time(IST) Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E) Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) 15.04.2009/1130 14.0/87.5 50-60 gusting to 70 15.04.2009/2330 15.0/87.0 60-70 gusting to 80 16.04.2009/1130 16.0/86.5 70-80 gusting to 90 16.04.2009/2330 17.0/86.0 80-90 gusting to 100 17.04.2009/1130 18.0/86.0 90-100 gusting to 110 17.04.2009/2330 19.0/87.0 90-100 gusting to 110 18.04.2009/1130 20.0/88.5 90-100 gusting to 110 Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over Andaman Islands during next 24 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas during next 24hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system may not cross eastern coast. However, squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts during next 48 hours commencing from tomorrow morning. Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.