Posted by JAC on 3/9/2009, 10:22 pm, in reply to "Cyclone Hamish Forms off Northeast Australian Coast"

N the eye of the storm ... Courtney, 11, and Ben Davis, 7, on Mackay beach as Cyclone Hamish passes by. Picture: Cameron Laird Rodney Chester March 08, 2009 11:00pm CYCLONE Hamish is following a similar path to a storm that caused one of the most devastating weather events in southeast Queensland, the 1974 floods. Hamish's path has been compared to Cyclone Wanda's, which caused the disastrous 1974 Brisbane floods. With tomorrow tipped to be the crisis day when Hamish is predicted to cause chaotic weather around Hervey Bay, forecasters have identified similarities with the 1974 cyclone, which crossed the coast near Maryborough. Bureau of Meteorology Queensland regional director Jim Davidson yesterday said Hamish was "not that dissimilar" to Wanda, a weaker cyclone that caused havoc in southeast Queensland through its heavy rainfall rather than high winds. "Cyclone Wanda wasn't as intense as Hamish, during the early period of its lifetime," Mr Davidson said. "But it's not too different a course. Not quite the same, but close. "We haven't ruled out the remnants of Cyclone Hamish getting as far south as Brisbane," he said. The most likely scenario is that Hamish, which was dropped to a category four cyclone yesterday afternoon, would pass close to Lady Elliot Island and Heron Island tonight. "It won't be too far from either of those two islands, so there is a possibility that they will see destructive winds and some sea damage as well from both storm tide and large waves," Mr Davidson said. The cyclone is predicted to cross the coast near Fraser Island tomorrow night, where it could cause storm surges of several metres in the normally sheltered Hervey Bay. "The majority of our computer models are suggesting that it will be in the vicinity of Hervey Bay by Tuesday night, and if that scenario eventuates we'll see a fairly significant storm tide as well as the destructive winds, heavy rain and flooding," Mr Davidson said. "There is the potential for substantial rainfall between Bundaberg and right through to Brisbane by mid-week, and if that happens of course there will be significant flooding as well." "If it should cross the Hervey Bay area on Tuesday night, by Wednesday we could see falls in the order of a few hundred millimetres in 24 hours, particularly in places like the Sunshine Coast and extending up to the Hervey Bay area." Fraser Island was badly hit by Cyclone Dinah in 1967, which generated a large storm surge on the Sunshine and Gold coasts, with knee-deep floodwaters on Hastings St, Noosa. Mr Davidson said Cyclone Hamish at its peak had been at least the equal of Cyclone Larry and on a par with Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005. "We've had four very intense cyclones in the Queensland region in the past five or so years, which is pretty unusual," he said. Cyclone Hamish yesterday generated wind gusts of about 260km/h. "Queenslanders have been very fortunate that it has been about 150km off the coast," Mr Davidson said. "It would only have to have been another 50 or so kilometres closer to the coast for there to have been quite significant damage." "It's a very small cyclone, very compact, so the very destructive core might only extend out 70 or 80km from its centre."