Posted by JAC on 3/6/2009, 4:16 pm, in reply to "RI maybe underway"

061500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 147.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A 25 NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT ON THE CAIRNS RADAR IMAGERY. TC 18P PASSED ABOUT 10 NM EAST OF BOUGAIN- VILLE REEF NEAR 05/12Z WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REPORTED AT 53 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 979.0 MB. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A 50 KNOT INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND ABRF. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. TC 18P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// NNNN