Posted by JAC on 3/6/2009, 8:47 am, in reply to "Re: Cyclone Hamish Forms off Northeast Australian Coast"

REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 146.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050952Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAP- PING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050815Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF (110 NM SOUTH) INDICATE EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIR- ONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 18P HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 (PGTW) TO 45 KNOTS (ABRF). THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND THE PGTW ESTIMATE BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE POLEWARD-ORIENTED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 20 KNOT PER DAY RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 050921Z MAR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 050930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.// NNNN