I studied the water-vapor imagery during the day, plus took a bike ride to Warsaw in the afternoon on a hilly route offering great sky views. Cu popped according to schedule (sounding plus triggering temp time). It is remarkable how well, relative to past output, the latest models dealt with cirrus, which did materialize roughly as progged in early afternoon. The diminution of same later in the afternoon was also progged, and also happened....amazing.** When I left for Warsaw ~ 5, the sky was crystal clear, although cirrus remnants could still be seen in the direction of KDSV.
So, without being at the field, one could surmise: early sucker cu were soon replaced by usable ones, and maybe by noon or 1 people went out on task. By 2 or 3, large areas of our playground had cirrus, which then dissipated toward day's end. People on task would have had to work harder during the cirrus event to avoid getting shot down. If the cirrus was thin enough, only a slowing down of speed on course would have been encountered.
Your experience, and any others, would be helpful.
** To get an idea of the sophistication of what goes into the latest modeling, here's a partial list:
* high-frequency (every 1h) short-range weather model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in support of aviation and other mesoscale weather forecast users
* high-frequency (every 1h) 3-d objective analyses over much of North America, including the contiguous United States and adjacent areas of Canada and Mexico, assimilating the following types of observations:
o Commercial aircraft, including regional aircraft data with moisture (TAMDAR)
o Radar reflectivity (3-d)
o Profiler related
+ Wind profilers (404 and boundary-layer 915 MHz)
+ VAD (velocity-azimuth display) winds from NWS WSR-88D radars
+ RASS (Radio Acoustic Sounding System)
o Rawinsondes and special dropwinsondes
+ Surface reporting stations and buoys (including cloud, visibility, current weather)
+ GPS total precipitable water estimates
+ GOES cloud-top data (pressure and temperature)
+ GOES total precipitable water estimates
+ SSM/I total precipitable water estimates
+ GOES high-density visible and IR cloud drift winds
+ Lightning - experimental
+ NASA Langley cloud products including water/ice path
* a hybrid isentropic-sigma vertical coordinate.
Do you really want a definition of that last one?