Serious is the word Mark. Serious distance...if you mean Gold maybe, for the serious, hard-working pilot. Not like the recent diamond days we had recently. Why?
The rain coming in the near future (today and tomorrow) is not the problem. Area forecast matrices have an average QPF of only ~ 1/2 inch. The front will be slow moving however, as the upper level winds are going to be nearly parallel to it...so it could drop 1.5 inches in selected areas...and is much needed. Even so, the dry-as-punk ground, and moisture-starved roots, will soak and suck it right up. Wet, thermal-retarding soil on Thursday...NOT. The problem is that that nice fresh Canadian air won't come roaring in (as it did on our "diamond" weekend), but rather will ooze gradually in. There's a huge closed low centered in NE Canada at 500 mb which is boss. After the front passes us by, winds on both Thursday and Friday are progged, in the lower PBL, to be NE, albeit weak. Lake Ontario is warming up all right, but is still only at ~ 73 F, and the recent hot temps make that a big cooling influence...as can be seen most days on the satellite visible maps. Yesterday for example....an extensive lake-shadow restricting the convective (cumulus) cloud field even south of DKSV, while areas further south (HH, Ithaca) had a 7K CCL. So: avoid northern turnpoints, stay as far south as possible. Diamond goals? Maybe, winds aloft light as mentioned. Will require hard work.
Actually, when the low over NE Canada moves further east, we won't be getting that NE flow here. Also there's no more rain forecast for the forseeable future, after the today-tomorrow event. So the weekend will probably be even better for XC. When do we get any substantive PBL NW Canadian flow? According to the 156 hour GFS: next Monday. But we know how accurate maps nearly a week ahead are, LOL.
Good Luck, whenever you fly!
PS Will update this....if I see a substantive change in the progs.
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