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Posted by Ray
on 6/16/2012, 9:07 am, in reply to "Re: Thursday update"
74.67.144.48
Thanks Jim. Who knows, if you guys keep providing this kind of detailed post-flight reporting, maybe eventually I will get something right!
Comment re yesterday: on Wednesday I speculated that "Friday could be better than Thursday". Looking at the sky yesterday, checking with ASOS, and looking at the visual satellite imagery: extensive fields of cu ~ 6,500, although big areas of blue also present. I made the speculation 'cause the models showed that there would be no influx of cool lake air, and also because, although there was no real cold advection in the cards, there was no real warm advection either. It's that nasty warm advection aloft that really screws us up. But, since we're in the middle, more or less, of the big high over us, and since the sun is strong and the ground continues to dry out, there seemed no reason that conditions shouldn't have improved as compared to Thursday, which had the lake O issue. I checked the web cam a couple of times, didn't see a soul at the field. Did anyone fly, and if so, how was it?
Isn't hindsight wonderful.
I hope you like OJ. I suspect you could have gotten a T-shirt if you were aggressive enough and that blue hole hadn't been there...and you had had a crew!
--Previous Message--
: Lift started at 0930 AM, 2-3K Net to 3500 ft
: MSL. Took 3 Instruction flights with Drew
: getting his Annual checkride, McKeeby's
: getting 2 long flights (last flights were 9
: months ago!)
: My flight in the ASW-20C was 3.5 hrs, went
: 156 nm per the GPS. Lift was choppy and
: weak below 3500 ft 2K avg , then improved to
: 3-4K net above to 5500 ft around Dansville.
: South and East bases got to 6500ft - most of
: the day a band between 3500 to 5500 ft
: worked under cloud. Tried several times to
: get to Hornell from Cohocton...nothing in
: the blue.
: Neat flying all over the skies with 4 other
: guys in their fibreglas cocoons.
: Geoff Cline flew Doug's Pegasus very well
: getting to 6500 in the blue over the ridge
: at the end of the day on a street. Winds
: were out of the East at altitude, SE in
: thermals, and NW on the field most of the
: day.
: --Previous Message--
: Today is the day of the earliest sunrise for
: KDSV. Strong sun = strong thermals? Hell
: no, you need lots more. As in good lapse
: rate, best maintained by continuing cold
: advection. Last night's sounding reveals the
: great conditions Doug C reported
: on...textbook dry adiabatic up to about 4K
: (a bit lower than he got due to the Buffalo
: sounding being near Lake E). But we ain't
: gonna get that cold advection today. The
: latest winds aloft forecast for today (10 AM
: to 7 PM) shows two major problems:
: (1) The winds from the surface to ~ 3 K are
: ENE, and modest at < 12 mph. That means a
: fetch over Lake O, with a long residence
: time due to the slow flow. Which allows
: more time for thermal equilibrium with the
: lake water surface. How warm (read: cool) is
: the lake? Here's a great tool:
:
:
:
: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes/?c=tmp&l=lo&p=a
:
: Note the wind direction, and the temperature
: which is ~ 68 max. Which means it will
: counteract the sun's attempt at warming it.
: Area forecast matrices have only 71 by 2 PM
: for Geneseo. If you follow that up a dry
: adiabat with this morning's sounding, you
: get to....< 4 K, before hitting a big
: inversion.
: (2) The forecast winds for 6K are 12 mph @
: 140 , compared with 12 mph @ 080 for 3K.
: That means the winds are veering to SE with
: height...which means warm, stabilizing
: advection.
: Hate to be negative, but there's a third
: problem. The latest Rapid Refresh output has
: cirrus most of the day.
:
: Hey the morning sounding just came in!
: Dictating no change whatsoever in the above
: discussion.
:
: Bottom line: you will work harder to stay up
: than yesterday afternoon. Much harder.
: Anyone who sustains longer than 2.5 hours
: gets a quart of not-from-concentrate OJ.
: Anyone who makes it to HH and back (without
: a relight!) get an FLSC T-shirt.
:
:
:
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