Re: Thursday update
Posted by Ray on 6/14/2012, 10:03 pm, in reply to "Re: Thursday update"
Excellent, excellent report and ideally what I am looking for. And am always happy when conditions are better than expected. |
"The cu seemed to be all west of 390": makes perfect sense: the thermal-dampening lake shadow from Lake O made it just that far. If the boundary layer winds had been as strong as forecast (~ 10 kts), the lake shadow would have extended probably to Allegheny county....and people would have had difficulty getting their hour. If the boundary layer winds had been weaker (ie no NE component at all), there would have been many all-day flights, and people could have gone far. You see how critically sensitive just one parameter can be. All the other parameters are equally so. Cirrus is another example: apparently not too much, and very thin. The presence or absence thereof dependent on tiny changes in mesoscale vertical velocity. Lack of thick cirrus let more sun in. More energy was fed into the boundary layer, so the actual high was higher than forecast. Higher temps means a thicker PBL and consequently higher cloud base...exactly as observed.
I calculate one gallon of OJ, no T-shirts.
: The lift today was good with small Cumulus to
: indicate lift location. The wind was from
: the east at about 4-5 knots. The Cu seemed
: to be all west of 390 and there were also
: big blue holes to the south. Tried south
: but turned back north west to where there
: was good Cu. Could not crack 6,000 ft
: (attained 5,950 ft) Looked like you could
: fly to Brokenstraw today as the Cu looked
: good to the west. Lift started to die
: around 4:00 Pm and I came down after 2 hrs
: 35 minutes. Doug Cline flew the FLSC
: Pegasus and Geoff Cline flew his father
: Doug's Pegasus. They were up for about 3
: hours. It was the first time they flew
: together. Drew Ivancic showed up and flew
: with Jim Martin in the ASK 21 and then Drew
: took up the L13AC for 1.8 hours. Alex Moore
: was up for about a 1/2 hour in the Grob.
: Jim Martin flew with the Mckeebys in the
: morning in the ASK 21 and then flew his ASW
: 20 for about 3 hrs. No one went too far
: from our DSV home. The Clines went to Nunda
: and Jim Martin was as far south as Hornell.
: I went north as far as Sonyea. The lift was
: actually better than I expected with the
: East wind. Thanks to our intrepid Chief Tow
: Pilot, Rick Klingenberger for taking us up
: into the blue yonder. Also thank you Rick
: for helping us put away the club equipment.
: BTW, the ASK 21 needs a good washing before
: it is taken up on Saturday. Lots of bugs on
: the leading edges.
: --Previous Message--
: Today is the day of the earliest sunrise for
: KDSV. Strong sun = strong thermals? Hell
: no, you need lots more. As in good lapse
: rate, best maintained by continuing cold
: advection. Last night's sounding reveals the
: great conditions Doug C reported
: on...textbook dry adiabatic up to about 4K
: (a bit lower than he got due to the Buffalo
: sounding being near Lake E). But we ain't
: gonna get that cold advection today. The
: latest winds aloft forecast for today (10 AM
: to 7 PM) shows two major problems:
: (1) The winds from the surface to ~ 3 K are
: ENE, and modest at < 12 mph. That means a
: fetch over Lake O, with a long residence
: time due to the slow flow. Which allows
: more time for thermal equilibrium with the
: lake water surface. How warm (read: cool) is
: the lake? Here's a great tool:
: Note the wind direction, and the temperature
: which is ~ 68 max. Which means it will
: counteract the sun's attempt at warming it.
: Area forecast matrices have only 71 by 2 PM
: for Geneseo. If you follow that up a dry
: adiabat with this morning's sounding, you
: get to....< 4 K, before hitting a big
: (2) The forecast winds for 6K are 12 mph @
: 140 , compared with 12 mph @ 080 for 3K.
: That means the winds are veering to SE with
: height...which means warm, stabilizing
: Hate to be negative, but there's a third
: problem. The latest Rapid Refresh output has
: cirrus most of the day.
: Hey the morning sounding just came in!
: Dictating no change whatsoever in the above
: Bottom line: you will work harder to stay up
: than yesterday afternoon. Much harder.
: Anyone who sustains longer than 2.5 hours
: gets a quart of not-from-concentrate OJ.
: Anyone who makes it to HH and back (without
: a relight!) get an FLSC T-shirt.