Today is the day of the earliest sunrise for KDSV. Strong sun = strong thermals? Hell no, you need lots more. As in good lapse rate, best maintained by continuing cold advection. Last night's sounding reveals the great conditions Doug C reported on...textbook dry adiabatic up to about 4K (a bit lower than he got due to the Buffalo sounding being near Lake E). But we ain't gonna get that cold advection today. The latest winds aloft forecast for today (10 AM to 7 PM) shows two major problems:
(1) The winds from the surface to ~ 3 K are ENE, and modest at < 12 mph. That means a fetch over Lake O, with a long residence time due to the slow flow. Which allows more time for thermal equilibrium with the lake water surface. How warm (read: cool) is the lake? Here's a great tool:
Note the wind direction, and the temperature which is ~ 68 max. Which means it will counteract the sun's attempt at warming it. Area forecast matrices have only 71 by 2 PM for Geneseo. If you follow that up a dry adiabat with this morning's sounding, you get to....< 4 K, before hitting a big inversion.
(2) The forecast winds for 6K are 12 mph @ 140, compared with 12 mph @ 080 for 3K. That means the winds are veering to SE with height...which means warm, stabilizing advection.
Hate to be negative, but there's a third problem. The latest Rapid Refresh output has cirrus most of the day.
Hey the morning sounding just came in! Dictating no change whatsoever in the above discussion.
Bottom line: you will work harder to stay up than yesterday afternoon. Much harder. Anyone who sustains longer than 2.5 hours gets a quart of not-from-concentrate OJ. Anyone who makes it to HH and back (without a relight!) get an FLSC T-shirt.
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