Still think tomorrow is the pick day. It features the lowest dewpoints and most favorable flow (NW with cold advection). Main thing that could obviate that is if we get more precip than progged. It hasn't rained for awhile and the ground can soak up a lot, plus crop roots will be sucking big time. The first batch (prefrontal) is already passed us. I (southern Genesee County) got ~ 3/4 inch, southern Livingston much less...as of right now. However, the second batch (frontal) which comes later today after a lull...is key. If the southern tier ends up getting well over an inch....then much of tomorrow's sun will be expended in evaporating it (= sucker cu). For Thursday, the boundary layer flow goes NE....not usually resulting in a gold day...although still decent if your goal is HH. By the end of today, we'll know the final rainfall distribution pattern.
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday? We sit under the "high", which is not a high amplitude feature, but rather a dearth of flow, since the crucial 500 mb action is up in Canada and stays there. Typical summer weather, and with continued soil drying out and long days, and a lot a patience and luck, persistent pilots in good ships could still pull off gold. No beer bets though.
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