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Posted by Ray
on 6/6/2012, 6:18 am, in reply to "Friday is looking like the day...."
74.67.144.48
Mark...very good chance you have nailed it, we shall see shortly. BTW, last Sunday I used the word "crummy" to characterize mid-week flying...not a good choice. "Iffy" would have been more accurate, IF you were willing to dodge the occasional shower, or were able to work around big patches of overdevelopment. There have been respectable cumulus fields in between, all embedded in the monster low that's reluctant to go. Yesterday's sounding was textbook adiabatic, although only up to 850 mb. So fine for local work, sorry if anyone was misled.
And of course as that low slowly leaves, conditions will slowly improve. Friday definitely the sunniest day all week...but with the puny ridge comes weak warm advection, so the lapse rate could be inferior to what we have right now. If so obviously not a diamond day...although could be gold if you can work modest thermals long enough (like ~ 6 hours). Saturday...could also be good, although an incoming short wave will certainly complicate things. Example: the 84 hr NAM (for 1200 UTC Sat) has an obviously diffluent but not necessarily divergent* flow pattern at 850 mb, roughly the top of the PBL, and if that verifies it would mean likely overdevelopment, maybe showers to our east. Too early to tell, stay tuned.
* http://www.theweatherprediction.com/advanced/habyextra6/
--Previous Message--
: What do you think Ray? The indicators that I
: pay attention to are pointing to Friday, and
: with any luck, Saturday.
:
: Mark
:
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