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Posted by JR on 6/3/2012, 2:13 pm, in reply to "Re: Tornado Today?"
70.101.28.96
Ray:
Sorry it was not publicized. The event was originally scheduled for Soarfest, but due to the boys' schedules got put on a time slot that they could get together at the field. It was a bit of a surprise to all I think. I dont think they would have minded making an event of it, but it came up suddenly I think even in their busy lives.
--Previous Message--
: Doug...thanks for the always-important
: feedback. I'm happy that things turned out
: well for soaring, and disappointed I wasn't
: there to attend that touching ceremony for
: Ed and Betty...which I wasn't aware would be
: happening yesterday. Whenever I "fall
: down" (not infrequently) I always spend
: a little time asking myself what Ed would
: have done differently.
:
: As per that forecast: I left out the key
: phrase dry slot ("this feature" ),
: since it was so obvious from that
: water-vapor image. Equally obvious is
: today's "wet slot", which was
: originally supposed to come yesterday. I
: did watch the sky and could see good-looking
: clouds as far to the south as I could see
: (about to Rt. 20A).
:
: That upgraded RUC which is performing so
: well...indicates crummy flying for most of
: this upcoming week. Bummer. Grass will
: continue to grow like hell, maybe we need
: sheep.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Hi Ray:
: Thanks for the weather prediction which
: turned out to be reasonably accurate. The
: soaring was excellent up to a cloud base of
: almost 5000 msl and many of us had long
: enjoyable flights using both ridge and
: thermal soaring. The memorable highlight was
: that John and Dave Seymour distributed the
: ashes of Ed and Betty Seymour over the East
: Hill where Ed enjoyed so many happy hours.
: In addition, it was wonderful to have the
: K6E soaring over the hill, with the 1.26,
: Grob, ASK21, and Blanik. Yet again, Tom
: Roberts did yeoman service spending the day
: mowing the grass.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Of course not. But if you look at the latest
: water-vapor satellite imagery (data, not
: model output), you see a "hook
: echo" pattern that looks just like what
: you see just before you get sucked into
: Kansas. Because the atmosphere is a fluid,
: which admits patterns of many scales, some
: possibly even fractal. A mesoscale hook echo
: = tornado. Here we have a synoptic-scale
: "hook echo", reflected at 500 mb
: by a huge, stacked* low with nearly 4 closed
: isobars. Which for us normally means crappy,
: but in this case portends a potentially
: decent soaring day , as opposed to the
: previous forecasts all week for Saturday.
: The new Rapid Refresh Model picks up this
: feature and runs with it. The
: "RRM" actually has it sunny
: today for the entire southern tier from
: about 1 to 5 PM! Plus enough wind on the
: ridge to make it work, maybe. NWS Buffalo
: words it cautiously:
:
: A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
: REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITHIN A CHILLY
: CYCLONIC FLOW OF 2 TO 4C H85 AIR. WHILE
: THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL SUN
: TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY
: AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WE CAN EXPECT A
: FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE
: FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
: COUNTIES.
:
: Plenty of low level moisture for sure, look
: at last night's sounding, add to which the
: soaked soil from much-needed rain yesterday.
: Still, on the basis of the brief but
: sterling performance so far of the new RRM,
: I think there's a > 50% chance for decent
: flying conditions this afternoon.
:
: * Stacked: any low is a three-dimensional
: structure. At any level, there's a center.
: If the center is in the same position at all
: levels, we say the system is
: "vertically stacked". Or, the
: center could be vertically
: "tilted" forward or
: backward...skip that discussion for now.
:
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