Re: Tornado Today?
Posted by Doug C on 6/3/2012, 9:34 am, in reply to "Tornado Today?"
Hi Ray: |
Thanks for the weather prediction which turned out to be reasonably accurate. The soaring was excellent up to a cloud base of almost 5000 msl and many of us had long enjoyable flights using both ridge and thermal soaring. The memorable highlight was that John and Dave Seymour distributed the ashes of Ed and Betty Seymour over the East Hill where Ed enjoyed so many happy hours. In addition, it was wonderful to have the K6E soaring over the hill, with the 1.26, Grob, ASK21, and Blanik. Yet again, Tom Roberts did yeoman service spending the day mowing the grass.
: Of course not. But if you look at the latest
: water-vapor satellite imagery (data, not
: model output), you see a "hook
: echo" pattern that looks just like what
: you see just before you get sucked into
: Kansas. Because the atmosphere is a fluid,
: which admits patterns of many scales, some
: possibly even fractal. A mesoscale hook echo
: = tornado. Here we have a synoptic-scale
: "hook echo", reflected at 500 mb
: by a huge, stacked* low with nearly 4 closed
: isobars. Which for us normally means crappy,
: but in this case portends a potentially
: decent soaring day , as opposed to the
: previous forecasts all week for Saturday.
: The new Rapid Refresh Model picks up this
: feature and runs with it. The
: "RRM" actually has it sunny
: today for the entire southern tier from
: about 1 to 5 PM! Plus enough wind on the
: ridge to make it work, maybe. NWS Buffalo
: words it cautiously:
: A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
: REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITHIN A CHILLY
: CYCLONIC FLOW OF 2 TO 4C H85 AIR. WHILE
: THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL SUN
: TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY
: AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WE CAN EXPECT A
: FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE
: FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
: Plenty of low level moisture for sure, look
: at last night's sounding, add to which the
: soaked soil from much-needed rain yesterday.
: Still, on the basis of the brief but
: sterling performance so far of the new RRM,
: I think there's a > 50% chance for decent
: flying conditions this afternoon.
: * Stacked: any low is a three-dimensional
: structure. At any level, there's a center.
: If the center is in the same position at all
: levels, we say the system is
: "vertically stacked". Or, the
: center could be vertically
: "tilted" forward or
: backward...skip that discussion for now.