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Posted by Ray
on 6/2/2012, 6:33 am
74.65.47.166
Of course not. But if you look at the latest water-vapor satellite imagery (data, not model output), you see a "hook echo" pattern that looks just like what you see just before you get sucked into Kansas. Because the atmosphere is a fluid, which admits patterns of many scales, some possibly even fractal. A mesoscale hook echo = tornado. Here we have a synoptic-scale "hook echo", reflected at 500 mb by a huge, stacked* low with nearly 4 closed isobars. Which for us normally means crappy, but in this case portends a potentially decent soaring day, as opposed to the previous forecasts all week for Saturday. The new Rapid Refresh Model picks up this feature and runs with it. The "RRM" actually has it sunny today for the entire southern tier from about 1 to 5 PM! Plus enough wind on the ridge to make it work, maybe. NWS Buffalo words it cautiously:
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITHIN A CHILLY CYCLONIC FLOW OF 2 TO 4C H85 AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WE CAN EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
Plenty of low level moisture for sure, look at last night's sounding, add to which the soaked soil from much-needed rain yesterday. Still, on the basis of the brief but sterling performance so far of the new RRM, I think there's a > 50% chance for decent flying conditions this afternoon.
* Stacked: any low is a three-dimensional structure. At any level, there's a center. If the center is in the same position at all levels, we say the system is "vertically stacked". Or, the center could be vertically "tilted" forward or backward...skip that discussion for now.
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