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Posted by Ray
on 5/27/2012, 6:30 am
74.65.47.166
First, yesterday. The good news is that all had a fun day with lots of flights (40) followed by a great picnic. Didn't do a head count, but = or > # of Valley People as FLSC...all pitching in and working hard. The bad news is that that new Rapid Refresh model (let's call it RRM for now) verified amazingly well. Yesterday, it forecast Altocumulus crud alternately forming and dissipating all day, and it was spot on, as opposed to the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model, which had clear all day. Resulting in stifled thermals...some of the best pilots working to get a half hour. But if you worked really hard...well CZ got two hours, and could have gotten > 3 if he'd launched earlier. I owe him a Coke.
That RRM output was excellent yesterday, and I'm going by it today even if it was a fluke. Meaning almost no chance of rain or electrons. Approaching warm front: energy starved. But...like yesterday, mid-level crud will dim sun, and result in similar soaring conditions. If you want synoptic details, NWS Buffalo's morning discussion is excellent:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=BUFAFDBUF&versions=10
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