[ Post a Response | FLSC Message Board ]
Posted by Ray
on 5/18/2012, 6:10 am
74.65.47.166
The synoptic situation for today and tomorrow is somewhat similar to that which occurred on Aug 14 & 15, 1974, while I was doing a sailplane PBL research project. We had a high sitting on us, at 500 mb a ridge with axis upwind, and a digging (intensifying) low in western Canada. Then, the soaring improved from day to day: the lift lasted longer (> 5 hrs), and the PBL got deeper (> 6K). Maybe applicable to the current situation...hope so, and we shall see.
Note: the forecaster's job is dauntless, requiring getting a feel for the three-dimensional flow in space and time for a given scenario, together with appropriate physics and local influences. The last thing they do, if at all, is read somebody else's forecast. I've never used Blip maps (too cheap), but if I did they would be the last maps to look at...the aforementioned flow and physics that go into them are what counts. And as for verification: people have been good when I ask for feedback. Especially when the forecast is on. When the forecast is a bust: please don't refrain from pointing out when conditions are worse than I've suggested....i.e. being critical...because that is even more important in trying to improve. Also...there are many good days when we can't fly, but others can (HH). If someone knows how conditions were elsewhere, please do chime in. Yesterday for example...there should have been blue and moderately strong thermals to > 5 K. Today should be better, and tomorrow...could be better yet.*
Sunday of course another lovely day with summertime weather....but the ridge axis will be moving past us...we should start to see cirrus and weakening conditions.
*When flow is weak, winds aloft forecasts are less reliable. Some models are having weak NE flow tomorrow between 9 and 12 K, then back to NW above (whereas today it's basically WNW all the way up). If that should happen, tomorrow will be weaker than today (lake O is a lot cooler than this anomalously warm sequence).
Message Thread
« Back to index