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Posted by Ray
on 5/13/2012, 5:51 pm, in reply to "Re: Sunday update"
74.65.47.166
http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/64/9086
Esp. Jimmy Tango LOL (4th one down)
--Previous Message--
: Thanks Cy, those soundings don't lie (well,
: not usually). And when I looked at last
: night's sounding, I knew that that warm
: advection I was worried about never really
: got going, there had to be good thermals to
: 7 or 8 k, and the day was better than I
: suspected. So I knew my wallet was going to
: get thinner.
: OK Chuck, what's your pleasure? I'll get you
: anything....within reason. Sure hope it's
: not Allagash Curieux, I know what that stuff
: costs. Would still get that for my brother,
: except...you can't legally get it in NY
: State. One you can get here with as wicked
: an ETOH content (15-20%) is 120 Minute IPA
: from Dogfish Head. So, sock it to me!
:
: --Previous Message--
:
: Good forecasting Ray!
: Good day yesterday -but- not for you
: (because)
: You owe Chuck Z a six pack
:
: --Previous Message--
: No change in definitiveness since
: previously.
: NWS Buffalo, Aviation 7:25 AM) sums it up
: perfectly:
:
: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
: SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
: THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF SHOWER
: ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO FAR
: ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW
: ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THIS
: MORNING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT
: THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT
: CIGS/VSBY TO STAY VFR IN MOST OF THESE LIGHT
: SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
: SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A MORE
: CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING A
: FEW PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
: RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING
: THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY LIMITED
: INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
: HEATING...BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
: MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND
: TO FOCUS ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING
: THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LAKE BREEZE
: BOUNDARIES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
: NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH QUALIFIER FOR
: THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MOST
: SITES.
:
: So, how was yesterday? Anybody win any
: six-packs?
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: ....should be extended to today, which will
: be
: a super soaring day, as club cognoscenti
: already know and should already be planning
: for...flying! Will be amazed if none of the
: weekday fliers aren't down there today.
: Yesterday, the beautifully unstable boundary
: layer was already evident, cloud streets
: from Canada to PA...overdeveloped around
: Rochester but fine further south. That cold
: advection is continuing today, with the wind
: vector veering with altitude (300,310,340 at
: 3,6,9 K), and increasing modestly (20,25,39)
: as you go up, which is what you want, 'cause
: if there's too abrupt an increase (to much
: shear), even strong thermals can get ripped
: up. Last night's sounding is pretty amazing:
:
:
:
:
:
: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/sounding/BUF-120511-00Z.gif
:
: If you need help interpreting, call David.
: In short: a perfect dry adiabatic sounding
: up to 850 mb. Now usually, after a good day
: of PBL mixing, the adiabatic part of the
: sounding hits a marked inversion. Sometimes
: but not often though, instead of that, the
: slope (dT/dZ, where Z is height) just
: gradually gets less and less adiabatic, i.e.
: gradually gets less "steep". Why?
: Someone is welcome to post the answer,
: otherwise I will, when I update the forecast
: for Sunday, which will be needed.
:
: So today will be the best soaring day by far
: for the next three. According to the
: sounding, what should the CCL be? Extending
: the dry adiabat up to where it hits the
: dewpoint, we get...500mb! Well this ain't
: Montana folks, and we ain't gonna get 18,000
: foot cloud bases. Remember that the Buffalo
: sounding last night won't reflect the
: additional moisture steaming up from Lake O
: during today...so we should see some cu,
: especially in the southern tier...but they
: will be high, at least 7K, maybe increasing
: to 9 or even 10 K as you get into PA.
: Should be some great flights from HH today.
:
: Saturday: we start to get warm
: advection...not strong, but enough to weaken
: conditions, and maybe some cirrus in the
: afternoon to add more dampening. Ridge may
: work somewhat, should kick off thermals by
: noon. Decent day, anyone getting > 3
: hours gets a six pack.
:
: Sunday: well all week the TV tells us Mom's
: Day may have a few showers. Maybe not. The
: 500 mb flow goes zonal, with weak,
: epheremal, and hard to model accurately
: short waves passing thru. The latest GFS and
: NGM 60 hr 500mb vorticity maps agree
: amazingly well: they both show vorticity
: swaths passing to the north and south of NY
: state, leaving us in the middle...which is
: good. So weak fronts coming thru will be
: both moisture and energy starved, as far as
: being able to generate any significant rain.
: Could be rain free and decent all day...stay
: tuned.
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