Re: Sunday update
Posted by Ray on 5/13/2012, 5:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Sunday update"
Thanks Cy, those soundings don't lie (well, not usually). And when I looked at last night's sounding, I knew that that warm advection I was worried about never really got going, there had to be good thermals to 7 or 8 k, and the day was better than I suspected. So I knew my wallet was going to get thinner. |
OK Chuck, what's your pleasure? I'll get you anything....within reason. Sure hope it's not Allagash Curieux, I know what that stuff costs. Would still get that for my brother, except...you can't legally get it in NY State. One you can get here with as wicked an ETOH content (15-20%) is 120 Minute IPA from Dogfish Head. So, sock it to me!
: Good forecasting Ray!
: Good day yesterday -but- not for you
: You owe Chuck Z a six pack
: --Previous Message--
: No change in definitiveness since
: NWS Buffalo, Aviation 7:25 AM) sums it up
: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
: SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
: THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF SHOWER
: ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO FAR
: ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MAY SEE A FEW
: ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THIS
: MORNING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT
: THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT
: CIGS/VSBY TO STAY VFR IN MOST OF THESE LIGHT
: SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
: SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A MORE
: CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING A
: FEW PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
: RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING
: THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY LIMITED
: INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
: HEATING...BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
: MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND
: TO FOCUS ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING
: THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LAKE BREEZE
: BOUNDARIES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
: NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH QUALIFIER FOR
: THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MOST
: So, how was yesterday? Anybody win any
: --Previous Message--
: ....should be extended to today, which will
: a super soaring day, as club cognoscenti
: already know and should already be planning
: for...flying! Will be amazed if none of the
: weekday fliers aren't down there today.
: Yesterday, the beautifully unstable boundary
: layer was already evident, cloud streets
: from Canada to PA...overdeveloped around
: Rochester but fine further south. That cold
: advection is continuing today, with the wind
: vector veering with altitude (300,310,340 at
: 3,6,9 K), and increasing modestly (20,25,39)
: as you go up, which is what you want, 'cause
: if there's too abrupt an increase (to much
: shear), even strong thermals can get ripped
: up. Last night's sounding is pretty amazing:
: If you need help interpreting, call David.
: In short: a perfect dry adiabatic sounding
: up to 850 mb. Now usually, after a good day
: of PBL mixing, the adiabatic part of the
: sounding hits a marked inversion. Sometimes
: but not often though, instead of that, the
: slope (dT/dZ, where Z is height) just
: gradually gets less and less adiabatic, i.e.
: gradually gets less "steep". Why?
: Someone is welcome to post the answer,
: otherwise I will, when I update the forecast
: for Sunday, which will be needed.
: So today will be the best soaring day by far
: for the next three. According to the
: sounding, what should the CCL be? Extending
: the dry adiabat up to where it hits the
: dewpoint, we get...500mb! Well this ain't
: Montana folks, and we ain't gonna get 18,000
: foot cloud bases. Remember that the Buffalo
: sounding last night won't reflect the
: additional moisture steaming up from Lake O
: during today...so we should see some cu,
: especially in the southern tier...but they
: will be high, at least 7K, maybe increasing
: to 9 or even 10 K as you get into PA.
: Should be some great flights from HH today.
: Saturday: we start to get warm
: advection...not strong, but enough to weaken
: conditions, and maybe some cirrus in the
: afternoon to add more dampening. Ridge may
: work somewhat, should kick off thermals by
: noon. Decent day, anyone getting > 3
: hours gets a six pack.
: Sunday: well all week the TV tells us Mom's
: Day may have a few showers. Maybe not. The
: 500 mb flow goes zonal, with weak,
: epheremal, and hard to model accurately
: short waves passing thru. The latest GFS and
: NGM 60 hr 500mb vorticity maps agree
: amazingly well: they both show vorticity
: swaths passing to the north and south of NY
: state, leaving us in the middle...which is
: good. So weak fronts coming thru will be
: both moisture and energy starved, as far as
: being able to generate any significant rain.
: Could be rain free and decent all day...stay