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Posted by Ray
on 4/22/2012, 6:56 am, in reply to "This Weekend....and Beyond?"
74.65.47.166
LOL, and if anyone pulls that off today I get a new canopy for the 21. That front that was slowing down yesterday...yeah, it stalled (our incipient nor'easter flexing its muscle), and will squat and leak a teeny bit on us. A trace only, but: yesterday the progs had .25 to .50 inches for western NY...that did verify, but if you looked at the "storm total" rainfall map last night, there was a wedge-shaped swath of .50 to > one inch from the PA border to Rochester, with Dansville right in the middle of it. Last night's sounding reflects all this, PBL nearly saturated and going to stay that way most of the day due to NE fetch over relatively warm Lake O. Sunshine? You wish.
The good news? Should be interludes of WLFR...winch-legal flight rules.
--Previous Message--
: Today won't be a wash out...it will be a drip
: out. Took the mini-Airbook to bed last
: night, so that when insomnia strikes,
: usually ~ 3 AM, I could check on the
: position of the advancing rain band...which
: was supposed to be over us by midnight...but
: it was still in the Niagara frontier! Whole
: system had slowed down, and not as progged
: even by 12 hr models. Now it's on us, and
: still crawling. A look at what is going on
: (i.e. "analysis" (= data), as
: opposed to model future output) at 500 mb
: tells the story...trough axis ain't moving
: much because the developing nor'easter low,
: centered now over Louisiana, is diverting
: energy. The latest RUC output has precip
: over KDSV all day, although the QPF isn't
: very much...only 1/4 to 1/2 inch...not
: enough to break the drought, but just enough
: to ruin our flying day. Good day to do
: hangar work, set up the barbie under the
: hangar-door awning, and have a beer and
: burger.
:
: Sunday? Now that is going to be interesting.
: A few days ago, most models had sunny...then
: they started vacillating....always a red
: flag. Yes there's going to be a brief little
: bubble high, but...if you take a look at the
: water-vapor imagery right now, you'll see
: only a narrow wedgie of niceness before the
: next cloud shield comes in. On the plus
: side: the ground will still be non-soggy,
: and the fresh airmass swept in by the cold
: front now pathetically trying to get by us
: will be unstable (well, adiabatic) and ready
: to pop. On the minus side: dew point
: depressions, the weakness of the
: "high", and consequently the
: absence of robust synoptic-scale subsidence,
: means we probably won't see much sun, except
: for the morning. Yup, probably
: overdeveloped, with broken and low (2K)
: cloud cover. But they will be convective cu,
: and thermals feeding them may, with a lot of
: patience and hard work, allow a 4-5 hour
: flight under the deck. Could be a good day
: to practice off-field landings at Five
: Gullies, get a tow back. Also could be an
: excellent winch day.
:
: And beyond? Don't go there. The fact that I
: am prepping my cross country skis should
: tell you something. Highly recommend
: reading this morning's superb Buffalo Area
: Forecast Discussion. Here's a little sample:
:
: IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS
: WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP THE SNOW ASPECT OF
: IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST
: PARAMETERS (H5/7 HGHTS...MSLP...H85
: TEMPS...U AND V WIND COMPONENTS) ARE 4 TO 5
: STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS
: CERTAINLY SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST
: PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...BUT WHEN
: NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR
: FROM NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE
: TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR EVEN HISTORIC
: STATURE. THAT BEING SAID...THESE PARAMETERS
: HAVE TO COME TOGETHER IN THE PERFECT MIX AND
: THAT IS STILL FAR FROM A CERTAINTY.
:
: And for the long term, i.e. after the
: nor'easter is done with us, i.e. the latter
: part of next week: if the GFS for 132 - 180
: hours should verify, featuring big chucks of
: vorticity screaming out of Canada, the
: entire week is kaput .
:
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