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Posted by Doug C on 4/20/2012, 8:25 pm, in reply to "At least for today...."
66.66.198.147
Ray's forecast for today was quite accurate. The thermals were fabulous; strong and well formed with climb rates from 5-10kt, the occasional cloud wisps and top of the thermals were at 9K msl. Ray, thanks for providing the forecasts which are really valuable.
Jim Martin worked hard on the Blanik and should have it back into service very soon.
Jim Rizzo spent 2.5 hours in the back seat of the ASK21, first with Lois, and then Dave Van Der Linden. Jim Martin and Ray Cipriano had a long soaring flight in the 21 followed by Jake and Alex who took turns flying the 21 with Jack. I checked out the FLSC Pegasus for 2 hours. All of this activity was possible thanks to Rick Lafford who towed all day.
--Previous Message--
: ....we are solid VFR and good to go. Yesterday
: was much better that I had
: predicted....didn't think there was enough
: time to break down the surface inversion
: from the previous night and reach triggering
: temp. Underestimated the dryness of the
: ground...TT was reached by noon or so, then
: cu at 7 - 8 K till 6 - 7 PM...Gold task
: doable, maybe more.
:
: What happened yesterday has a huge bearing
: on today. Last night's sounding shows the
: mixing got up to nearly 700 mb! The
: overnight inversion isn't too deep, because
: alto-stuff limited radiational surface
: cooling. Today's triggering temp is only ~
: 23C (73F). Here's the key for today: the
: winds aloft forecast does not portend
: significant WAA (warm air advection)...no
: backing with altitude, in fact some veering
: between 9 & 12 K. So: it's not often
: that we get strong thermal conditions with a
: south wind...but today could well be such a
: day. The point for sure should be working,
: especially by noon. It may be all
: "blue" (i.e. no cu), and probably
: strong sink between widely-spaced thermals.
: Alto-stratus patches should remain well to
: the north of KDSV; cirrus patches above 18
: K will almost surely pass over us and have
: to be watched carefully while on task...or
: get shot down. Good day to pick a southerly
: TP (HH), the wind will help you get home.
: For students and newbies: tow could be
: interesting, will probably have to land on
: 14 in the afternoon if surface winds gust to
: 30 as is now progged.
:
: And beyond? Saturday dismal, except maybe
: some instruction flights late afternoon.
: Sunday...first half OK, then models already
: get crazy:
:
: FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
: ON SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX INTERACTION AMONG
: UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES...AND A DEVELOPING
: COASTAL LOW HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN
: MODEL TO MODEL RUNS.
:
: For example: the 60 hour GFS and NAM (7 AM
: Sunday) agree closely on the location of the
: precip swath to our east associated with the
: developing nor'easter: both models have
: western NY and the Finger Lakes in the
: clear. But just 12 hours forward in time
: (for 7 PM): the NAM has all of NY state in
: the clear, but the GFS has the precip shield
: retrogressing and covering all of NY state!
:
: Go figure....and stay tuned.
:
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