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Posted by Ray
on 4/20/2012, 7:40 am
74.65.47.166
....we are solid VFR and good to go. Yesterday was much better that I had predicted....didn't think there was enough time to break down the surface inversion from the previous night and reach triggering temp. Underestimated the dryness of the ground...TT was reached by noon or so, then cu at 7 - 8 K till 6 - 7 PM...Gold task doable, maybe more.
What happened yesterday has a huge bearing on today. Last night's sounding shows the mixing got up to nearly 700 mb! The overnight inversion isn't too deep, because alto-stuff limited radiational surface cooling. Today's triggering temp is only ~ 23C (73F). Here's the key for today: the winds aloft forecast does not portend significant WAA (warm air advection)...no backing with altitude, in fact some veering between 9 & 12 K. So: it's not often that we get strong thermal conditions with a south wind...but today could well be such a day. The point for sure should be working, especially by noon. It may be all "blue" (i.e. no cu), and probably strong sink between widely-spaced thermals. Alto-stratus patches should remain well to the north of KDSV; cirrus patches above 18 K will almost surely pass over us and have to be watched carefully while on task...or get shot down. Good day to pick a southerly TP (HH), the wind will help you get home. For students and newbies: tow could be interesting, will probably have to land on 14 in the afternoon if surface winds gust to 30 as is now progged.
And beyond? Saturday dismal, except maybe some instruction flights late afternoon. Sunday...first half OK, then models already get crazy:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX INTERACTION AMONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN MODEL TO MODEL RUNS.
For example: the 60 hour GFS and NAM (7 AM Sunday) agree closely on the location of the precip swath to our east associated with the developing nor'easter: both models have western NY and the Finger Lakes in the clear. But just 12 hours forward in time (for 7 PM): the NAM has all of NY state in the clear, but the GFS has the precip shield retrogressing and covering all of NY state!
Go figure....and stay tuned.
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