Yes Mark, Sunday now looks to be decent, although (NWS@12:33)
THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS BEEN QUITE UNCERTAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH POOR RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY AND INTER-MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH AGREEMENT AND GIVEN THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
The unruly actor coming on stage is the huge low forming to our SW (not SE) by Saturday morning, centered over eastern Texas. The speed and track of that sucker* means everything for the Sat - Wed forecast period, and analyzing the progs in any non-cursory manner will take a lot more time than I have right now...am up to it. Therefore will post something more substantive early tomorrow AM.
Too bad people couldn't have flown today...not much alto and enough sunshine coming thru them to spawn thermals underneath to 7 K which is the current CCL and in excellent agreement with this morning's sounding. But tomorrow's OK too...will include that in the morning update.
*People already talking about heavy snow in the higher elevations well to our east on the backlash...maybe the Adirondack club can still use their XC skiis.