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Posted by Ray
on 4/17/2012, 3:05 pm, in reply to "It's an OK idea Mark, but...."
74.65.47.166
Ooops....there's a one-letter error in the above forecast....anybody catch it?
--Previous Message--
: ....just for laughs, you may have noticed that
: earlier today the ridge was cranking...and
: you can see wave clouds straddling the NY/PA
: border south of Elmira right now. The next
: two somewhat-promising days are tomorrow and
: Thursday. Synoptically, there's zonal flow
: for the next two days extending nearly
: 6,000 miles upstream of us... and that is
: rare folks. Little ripples at 500 mb form
: thereon, unpredictable and ticking off both
: forecasters and pilots.
:
: Wednesday: definitely the sunnier,
: but...weak flow surface and aloft spells no
: ridge, no wave. Thermals? Problem is, by the
: time the sun starts cooking the PBL, the
: flow above it starts backing, reflecting
: warm advection and convection supression.
: Suspect modest or weak blue thermals. Hanna
: Acres and return?
:
: Thursday: likely good ridge lift till early
: afternoon. Alto-cloudy but who cares?
: Negligible chance of showers till very late
: in the day. Probably insufficient PBL mixing
: to go very far. Still, if you want to be
: sure of a 2-4 hour flight as opposed to 1-2
: hours, Thursday's your day.
:
: Subsequently: things go downhill as the
: weekend approaches. Not a good soaring
: weekend, maybe good for instructing landings
: and winch operations. Unless things change,
: it's still too early to be even a little
: cocky.
:
: And for the long term: models have a big
: nasty low forming to our SE on Monday, then
: intensifying to a cutoff and traveling up
: the maritimes. If that verifies, the next
: really good soaring day won't be till next
: Wednesday or Thursday.
:
: Wanna be a forecaster?
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: What is the forecast for tomorrow Ray? I
: think it is reasonable, better than what the
: weekend looks like. I may be able to make
: it, but I would just assume someone else
: took the lead.
:
: Mark
:
: --Previous Message--
: Anyone plan on flying Wed. ?
:
:
:
:
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