[ Post a Response | FLSC Message Board ]
Posted by Ray
on 4/17/2012, 2:52 pm, in reply to "I think that is a good idea....."
74.65.47.166
....just for laughs, you may have noticed that earlier today the ridge was cranking...and you can see wave clouds straddling the NY/PA border south of Elmira right now. The next two somewhat-promising days are tomorrow and Thursday. Synoptically, there's zonal flow for the next two days extending nearly 6,000 miles upstream of us... and that is rare folks. Little ripples at 500 mb form thereon, unpredictable and ticking off both forecasters and pilots.
Wednesday: definitely the sunnier, but...weak flow surface and aloft spells no ridge, no wave. Thermals? Problem is, by the time the sun starts cooking the PBL, the flow above it starts backing, reflecting warm advection and convection supression. Suspect modest or weak blue thermals. Hanna Acres and return?
Thursday: likely good ridge lift till early afternoon. Alto-cloudy but who cares? Negligible chance of showers till very late in the day. Probably insufficient PBL mixing to go very far. Still, if you want to be sure of a 2-4 hour flight as opposed to 1-2 hours, Thursday's your day.
Subsequently: things go downhill as the weekend approaches. Not a good soaring weekend, maybe good for instructing landings and winch operations. Unless things change, it's still too early to be even a little cocky.
And for the long term: models have a big nasty low forming to our SE on Monday, then intensifying to a cutoff and traveling up the maritimes. If that verifies, the next really good soaring day won't be till next Wednesday or Thursday.
Wanna be a forecaster?
--Previous Message--
: What is the forecast for tomorrow Ray? I
: think it is reasonable, better than what the
: weekend looks like. I may be able to make
: it, but I would just assume someone else
: took the lead.
:
: Mark
:
: --Previous Message--
: Anyone plan on flying Wed. ?
:
:
:
Message Thread
« Back to index