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Posted by Ray
on 4/14/2012, 5:34 am
74.65.47.166
Visiting the field around noon yesterday, where a squad of Glass Gods were busily assembling their Slippers, I noticed that the sky was NOT covered by lovely Cumuli, as my forecast had implied. Suspect it was a blue and not-strong day...although haven't gotten any feedback yet. Can think of a few infrequent and arcane mechanisms why that forecast was a bust, but what's the point now? Decided to get the hell out of there while my health was still intact.
Today...not at all that bad. Can say with high confidence that the wind will be on the ridge, albeit weakly and starting late, due to weak coupling as the cirrus warm front precursors are already here. A weakly-working ridge with lots of folks itching to fly and lots of ships available, portends heavy traffic thereon, and a chance to practice sane and courteous ridge flying techniques drummed into us at the safety meetings. White ships are tough to spot against a milky sky.
When/if the rain? ALL models this AM have it holding off most of the day, but...having just gotten burned, I'll be extra cautious. You'll hear experienced forecasters say things like "Never trust a warm front" or "Never underestimate a warm front". Here's one reason: sometimes a wave (meso-scale) develops at the interface between the overrunning (isentropic lift is the current and unhelpful lingo) warm air and the cooler air below....so light precip can break out one or two hundred miles (i.e. 2 -4-hours) in advance of the "main" front. So the rain's not supposed to get here till very late in the day....but.
Tomorrow: not a wash out....as far as precip anyway...the system is not strong enough to dump much water... a fraction of an inch total all day. Ridge possibly even working in the afternoon, again weakly, although some WS possible on tow. Should be possible to get in some legal flights is spite of mostly MVFR. And definitely a good day for ground work (as in dirt).
So: COME ON DOWN !!
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