Re: 2012 Comes In.....
Posted by Ray on 12/30/2011, 10:23 am, in reply to "Re: 2012 Comes In....."
Could they be in the clubhouse, in the drawer where the logbooks are? That's where the set of keys that I forgot to fetch out of the Red Wagon the last time I flew are supposed to be. |
: Ray, can you predict where Dennis's brown
: leather gloves are?
: --Previous Message--
: ....like a Lion! The question for Sunday is
: not, "will there be enough wind for
: wave?" Rather, it's "will there
: be too much wind to fly at all?" .
: Tomorrow, wind won't be a problem. But
: crappy and IFR in the morning, albeit OK
: later in the PM.
: The flow at 500mb across the eastern Pacific
: and continental US is quasi-zonal: more or
: less east-west, no big troughs, but lots of
: little (relatively) kinks ("short wave
: troughs" or "vorticity
: maxima" in the lingo). Now in general
: the translational speed of such waves is
: inversely proportional to their amplitude,
: and this weekend is a text book case. Am not
: going to spend three pages discussing the
: flow evolution at various levels for the
: next three days...but it is fascinating to
: see...and geeks are strongly encouraged to.
: The culprit for Sunday was, at 7 PM last
: night, just a little vort max, out over the
: Pacific, in line with the US-Canada border,
: and about 200 miles offshore. But it is a
: speed demon: by tomorrow morning it spans
: Idaho/Wyoming, and by Sunday morning it's
: reached the Great Lakes! Now the GFS and NAM
: agree closely out to 60 hours (1200 UTC
: Sunday). They also agree after that, as to
: the general shape of the isobars...but not
: at all to the spacing, i.e. the wind
: strength. At 925mb for example (just above
: the ridge), the NAM has 20-30 knots WSW
: reaching western NY...but the GFS, for the
: same time and place, has 50-60 knots (holy
: crap!). Which of these two models verifies
: is crucial for us of course. Notice that
: everyone is talking about the cold front
: crossing NY state on Sunday, but no one,
: including NWS Buffalo, is saying when. And
: this is why. Anyway: even if the GFS winds
: verify, the front probably won't cross first
: thing in the AM. That, in conjunction with
: the fact that KDSV sits sheltered in the
: valley from crosswinds, means we'll probably
: be able to get some early tows off...but
: expect to get kicked hard on tow. You may
: get early ridge lift...but if you stay on it
: too long, you might not want to land...but
: when the front comes in, you would have to
: . Get the idea?
: Because of all the above, we definitely need
: another 24 hours of model output, and
: analysis thereof, to better pin down when
: Sunday's front comes in. And you will get
: it, tomorrow AM.