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Posted by Ray
on 10/30/2009, 5:48 am
69.205.81.50
Saturday: the trick is to even fly at all, safely. Although model errors in the vertical component of the wind field can make the difference between cloudy and sunny, errors in the horizontal component are proportionately smaller, and thus less consequential as per wrecking the forecast. There is absolutely no doubt Saturday will be windy, with surface qusts 30-40 during the day. More interestingly, the wind forecast for 3000' overnight and up to 7 AM tomorrow morning is 73 mph!, and I can believe that, since coupling between the surface and the geostrophic wind higher up will be poor, what with no sunshine and wet ground...not to mention the 500 mb vort max ripping through. That all spells a wicked gradient on tow from takeoff up to release altitude....assuming that some VFR sneaks in between the almost-certain all-day MVFR plus IFR with the fropa (frontal passage). No thank you. Just for fun, one other trick mother nature might throw in is an afternoon thunderstorm, for an interesting discussion of that go to
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=BUFAFDB
On Sunday, we might be treated to a lovely fall soaring day. The trick is to determine whether there will be enough synoptic-scale subsidence to keep residual cloudiness at bay: this is that problematic vertical component again, at it's tough to say at this point, the models just don't have enough resolution. If it does clear out, thermals will be late in starting, again because of the wet ground. Pessimistic of course, but I sure plan on flying.
Ray
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