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Posted by Ray on 10/23/2009, 6:56 am
69.205.81.50
Once again the major players are having a tiff, not so much as to what will happen but rather when. The NAM and GFS can't even agree on the timing of today's precip much less Saturday's....check out this language from NWS @ 6:20 AM:
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NAM QUITE A BIT SLOWER. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR LOOPS THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE AND TOO FAST. WE WILL GO MUCH CLOSER TO THE NAM. THIS WOULD BRING STARTING TIMES LATE MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER..MID AFTERNOON FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
Well based on what happened last Saturday I wouldn't place bets on either model. Saturday will be IFR/MVFR for several hours at least, probably but not certainly in the AM. The GFS actually has us in a dry slot at 1800 UTC, the NGM much less so. The ground will be wet since the overrunning precip ("isentropic lift" is the current "in" lingo, but I prefer the older, more publicly-understandable term), most of which comes today and tonight, will be well over half an inch. So possibly the entire day won't be a washout, with best case being a glimpse of blue. The wind for sure will probably give ridge lift. The major reason for model nervousness again is vort max timing: the reader is invited to loop either NGM or GFS 500 mb. vorticity maps out to 84 hours: the axis is 200 - 300 miles respectively upwind of us at 1800 UTC Sat, then accelerates extremey rapidly all the way to Nova Scotia by Sunday morning...amazing!
Sunday again the better weekend day, no question. Going to be a spectacular fall day, with the air freshly scrubbed clean by prior precipitation scavenging of dirty aerosols. You may wish to consult the sacred blip maps for thermal strength. Hope folks have fun...I'll be in Boston for the weekend, getting educated on global warming 
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Ray
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