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Posted by Ray
on 10/19/2009, 5:57 am
69.205.81.50
I awoke this AM with sore muscles in my upper back, not initially understanding why. Feels like the day after the first summer day of pitching hay bales in my youth. Then the reason dawned: three hours in the Bergefalke yesterday! Much of that time spent squirming around to relieve the pressure of the iron bar across my back, even though prior to the flight I tried to get the cushions right. Indeed she is a beast, on the controls as well: after a while, the thermals were so strong, I found myself using TWO hands on the stick to get the core wing down. I had elected to fly the club "ugly duckling" because no one else was interested. My favorite of course, and everyone else's, is our gorgeous Pegasus, but...a number of pilots were present who were also interested in that ship, who didn't have the option available to us derelict "weekday flyers". The day was much better than I had thought. This is why:
Candid, post-forecast analysis is important for the meteorologist. My suspicions for Saturday were realized: although three out of four models had western NY avoiding the vort max, I was uncomfortable with that consensus, because: one of the things models have difficulty dealing with is the non-linear transfer of heat, water vapor, and momentum from water surfaces. And, we live downstream from Lake Ontario. AND, that lake is relatively warm right now.
For the same reason I got it right on Saturday, I screwed up on Sunday. Yes it was better than Saturday. Consensus had it clearing by the afternoon. But by dawn yesterday, it was already clearing...sure enough, the skitterish vort max had swung out of our way, and we had wall-to-wall sunshine all day. That didn't surprise me, but the quality of the soaring did: normally a northeast wind at 850mb over Lake Ontario stabilizes the PBL. But didn't you just say the lake is warm now, idiot?! At 5 AM, one cup of coffee is not quite enough to defrag my schizophrenic brain.
Bottom line: on the morning you are thinking of going flying: to hell with the meteoroligist's forecast, Ph.D. or otherwise. LOOK OUT THE WINDOW!
Ray
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