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Posted by Ray
on 10/16/2009, 7:07 am
69.205.81.50
If you live in the southern tier and are a deer hunter, your dreams have come true, as the unusually-early snow cover down there, no doubt an indirect result of global warming, makes for easy blood-trail following on the first day of bow season....just check out our web cam this AM. Our TV weekend forecasters, after discussing in some detail what today will be like, skip directly to the 7 day outlook, without much to say specifically about Saturday versus Sunday. This is why:
All "guidance" (= computer model output) is pretty consistent with the evolution of the positioning and amplitude of the long -wave, synoptic-scale 500mb trough over the northeast during the weekend. However, they are not in sync with the notorious "short wave induced vorticity maxima" swinging through that though, especially for Saturday. But that is crucial in determining how far south of us the crud will stay. One NWS Buffalo forcaster (and an excellent one at that) has chosen to "throw out that (GFS) model for this cycle", in favor of other, more consistent models. Definitely arguable, but too risque for my taste. Remember that NWS is talking to the public, most of whom in western NY live in the Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan area. Dansville is well to the south, and too close to the flip-flopping boundary to call. So:
Saturday: best case: clear and sunny all day. Worst case: overcast with scattered snow showers all day.
Sunday: definitely better than Saturday, but in the worst case could be cloudy and grey all day. With a northeast wind aloft over a warm lake Ontario, all bets are off.
Ray
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