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Posted by Jack
on 10/2/2009, 8:23 am, in reply to "October Weekend #1"
70.198.22.90
--Previous Message--
: The bottom line: A very interesting flying
: weekend, with a variety of weather,
: definitely not a washout, and probably some
: excitement (read: fear).
:
: Getting into it: Fall is here, the jet
: stream is on us, and the weather is
: volatile. If you look at the various TV
: "5 day outlooks", they've got the
: raindrop graphics both Saturday and Sunday
: but...that's just a CYA, 'cause predicting
: the exact timing of the energy spokes of yet
: another closed low at 500 mb closing in on
: us isn't yet possible. Similar thing
: happened last weekend. Last Saturday for
: example, it looked crappy even in the
: morning, with a warm front moving in. I had
: speculated, hopefully, that the point would
: be working...it was even better: the south
: east winds aloft spawned a wave over the 390
: south of Dansville, strong enough to soar
: even if you couldn't figure out how to turn
: on your vario. Several of the intrepid
: cognoscenti got into it, but eventually we
: all had to abandon, as it was closing in
: rapidly, and "VFR on top" is not
: fun when you don't know what the hell you
: are doing, not to mention illegal. BTW, now
: that wave season is here big-time, any
: pilots who don't have prior wave-soaring
: experience are strongly recommended to fly
: with someone who does. I have been caught
: "on top", and fun it is not. All
: of which applies in spades this weekend. The
: 36hr NAM and GFS differ significantly for
: tomorrow morning, with the former having us
: still in the remaining crud from the
: overnight warm-front passage; the latter has
: us VFR from sunrise. Inconsequential,
: because both have the remainder of the day
: clear. Southerly surface winds should be
: light enough to operate from 32, unless we
: get enough PBL mixing...but that would be
: good. For Sunday morning both models have a
: sunny dawn, but as the day progresses a warm
: Lake Erie plus favorable winds aloft could
: generate a cloudy/rainy plume, which could
: cover Dansville. Since neither model can pin
: that down, and since there'll be plenty of
: wind upstairs both days to trigger a wave
: either day, you'll just have to watch your
: a##.
:
: Ray
:
:I actually believe that I'm starting to understand this stuff. Thank you
Ray for your reports. JG
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