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Posted by Ray
on 10/2/2009, 8:03 am
69.205.81.50
The bottom line: A very interesting flying weekend, with a variety of weather, definitely not a washout, and probably some excitement (read: fear).
Getting into it: Fall is here, the jet stream is on us, and the weather is volatile. If you look at the various TV "5 day outlooks", they've got the raindrop graphics both Saturday and Sunday but...that's just a CYA, 'cause predicting the exact timing of the energy spokes of yet another closed low at 500 mb closing in on us isn't yet possible. Similar thing happened last weekend. Last Saturday for example, it looked crappy even in the morning, with a warm front moving in. I had speculated, hopefully, that the point would be working...it was even better: the south east winds aloft spawned a wave over the 390 south of Dansville, strong enough to soar even if you couldn't figure out how to turn on your vario. Several of the intrepid cognoscenti got into it, but eventually we all had to abandon, as it was closing in rapidly, and "VFR on top" is not fun when you don't know what the hell you are doing, not to mention illegal. BTW, now that wave season is here big-time, any pilots who don't have prior wave-soaring experience are strongly recommended to fly with someone who does. I have been caught "on top", and fun it is not. All of which applies in spades this weekend. The 36hr NAM and GFS differ significantly for tomorrow morning, with the former having us still in the remaining crud from the overnight warm-front passage; the latter has us VFR from sunrise. Inconsequential, because both have the remainder of the day clear. Southerly surface winds should be light enough to operate from 32, unless we get enough PBL mixing...but that would be good. For Sunday morning both models have a sunny dawn, but as the day progresses a warm Lake Erie plus favorable winds aloft could generate a cloudy/rainy plume, which could cover Dansville. Since neither model can pin that down, and since there'll be plenty of wind upstairs both days to trigger a wave either day, you'll just have to watch your a##.
Ray
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