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Posted by Ray
on 9/25/2009, 7:00 am
69.205.81.50
Flip-flopping models cause forecasters to do the same, as my thoughts on this weekend have been changing daily. This is particularly problematic this time of year when the jet stream gets cranking. The GFS and NAM have pretty much finally converged on a solution for Saturday. The bulk of the daylight hours will be rain free. Key for us is timing of warm-front cloud sequence (cirrus, cirrostratus, altocumulus, altostratus, stratus, rain...is the textbook model, often not strictly followed by nature). South wind with a low-level jet (e.g. for the overnight, 28 mph @ 3K', 5 mph @ 12K') will dictate a heads-up day for our operation: the Pawnee has the guts to launch on 32 with the forecast southerly surface winds, but we may want to come in on 14 so as not to have to haul gliders back from the intersection...but power will probably be using 14 for both take-off and landing. So we need to cooperate with our friends on the other side of the field, and use our radios effectively. What about staying up? Well the ridge won't be working, but the point might, which could result in a gaggle there which can be entertaining to the point of frightening. Incipient, early-day thermals usable by butterflies will gradually be quenched by the incoming cirrus, so you won't get far if XC is your bag. A good day for winching, as we won't have to drag the beast to the other end.
Sunday: the early AM forecasters have been using the phrase "won't be an all day rain", so as not to commit to the actual timing of precip...and justifiably so. The GFS and NAM which danced so nicely together on Saturday have split up by the 60 hour progs, and differ markedly on the timing of the departing overnight warm front: NAM has western NY still in crud, whereas GFS has us in the clear, by 8 AM Sunday. If I could predict which will verify, I would go to Vegas and come back with a Duo Discus. Come to the field anyway, we always have fun, and plenty of beer.
Ray
PS Apologies to Mr. Bradley, our ground-launcher is an elegant machine.
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