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Rings & Things

Posted by Ray on 9/11/2009, 6:46 am
69.205.81.50

On Labor Day, progs suggested the middle of this past week should feature some good soaring days, and initially I swallowed that guidance. But unless you don't have a TV or computer, you know that a surface low has been sitting off of the eastern seaboard. Sitting there all week, and it's still there. And because of it, Atlantic moisture and clouds have been dragged all the way back west to western NY, ruining any chance of good mid-week soaring, although the sky has been spectacularly beautiful. What the hell, you ask, why doesn't it go away? If you suspect that "something" is out there, you would be right.

This all has to do with the planetary redistribution on incoming solar energy, which (4th grade earth science) is generally from equator to pole. In the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream is the major energy conveyor belt, flowing from south west to north east. Now for fluid dynamics reasons slightly beyond 4th grade, it often becomes unstable, forming kinks which can break off into separate rings. Kinda like a large river like the Mississippi, which has "oxbow" lakes. The Gulf Stream rings aren't just academically interesting; they have the energy of hundreds of nukes, last from months to years, and profoundly affect western NY weather. If you want to get into it, go here (no nasty equations, just pretty pictures and clearly written text):

http://kingfish.coastal.edu/gulfstream/p5.htm

So, smelling a rat(ring), I checked a North Atlantic sea surface temperature map and found this:

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag389.html

and sure enough, there's not just one but two warm-core rings (warm eddies or WE, #20 & 24) sitting off the east coast. My synoptic teacher would have kicked my ass for not picking up on this earlier in the week, but what the hay, no one else is talking about it either.

Saturday: the ring-generated low is still pestering us. VFR but cloudy most of the day. Late afternoon, if the sun manages to break through, maybe some weak thermals, since the ground is dry and we'll get little if any precip today. North wind, perfect for winch instruction.

Sunday: good to excellent day. Surface low finally out of the picture. NW wind, dry soil, and relatively warm Lake Ontario strongly suggest a diamond triangle with turnpoints at East Aurora and Seneca Falls. Any takers?

Ray