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Posted by Schawrz by Riz on 8/30/2009, 8:52 pm, in reply to "Saturday ?"
67.247.189.158
And a new knee for Hans, but no flying activity Saturday.
--Previous Message--
: OK so I goofed up the name...but not the
: physics. Danny, not Dave, has been pumping
: water vapor up and into the approaching low
: for days. Water vapor, when it condenses, is
: the primary energy source for thunderstorms,
: tornadoes, and hurricanes. Storms are rated
: by their top winds. That is the easiest, but
: not the most meaningful, way to rate them.
: To wit: you can have a small storm with top
: winds of 200 mph, or a storm with three
: times the horizontal extent (i.e. 9 times
: the area), with winds of 150 mph. The first,
: although given a higher category, would have
: much less total energy, both kinetic (wind)
: and potential (water vapor). And
: consequently, much less influence on the
: general atmospheric circulation. But it
: takes a lot more work, and cost, to
: integrate those variables over a large
: storm. Hourly rate for a Lockheed WP-3D
: Orion isn't peanuts.
:
: Yup, Danny's still a player. Check this out,
: from the Gloucester Daily Times, posted 2:18
: this AM:
: ______________________
: Last week's offshore visit from Hurricane
: Bill was benign. While Bill churned up
: substantial surf up and down the coast, its
: most memorable calling card for Gloucester
: and Cape Ann may have come last Sunday
: afternoon, when that surf covered virtually
: all of Good Harbor Beach.
:
: Today's meeting with Tropical Storm Danny,
: however, is expected to be more serious. A
: gale watch is in effect through tonight,
: and, as of last night, forecasts were
: calling for Danny-driven winds of 20 to 25
: knots, with gusts up to 35 knots tonight.
: Forecasters were also predicting up to two
: inches of rain as the downgraded hurricane
: passes off the coast, with showers tonight
: and into tomorrow morning.
: ____________________
:
: So, what about today?, about which I said
: nothing yesterday. Because, both are still
: up in the air, literally. The sub-synoptic
: scale spokes of energy which rotate around
: synoptic-scale systems, which bring precip,
: and between which are "dry slots",
: are a b###h to pin down.
:
: You want confusion? Check out this for today
: from NWS Buffalo (posted 7:54 PM yesterday,
: not yet updated...they must still be in
: bed):
:
: FURTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT THE NIAGARA
: FRONTIER...SOUTHERN TIER...AND GENESEE
: VALLEY TO POSSIBLY SEE TWO OR THREE ROUNDS
: OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY MOVING IN FROM
: THE WEST. THE LAST ONE...WITH/AHEAD OF THE
: COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE
: LOW...SHOULD BE THE ONE THAT PRODUCES THE
: MOST PRECIPITATION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT AS
: MUCH OVERALL PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO AREAS
: TO THE EAST.
:
: And then compare with this for Sunday, same
: source:
:
: ..ONE OTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
: LOOKOUT FOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE
: ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
: TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES FROM THE SECOND HALF
: OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
: THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
: SUPPORT SUCH ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL
: PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD
: SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
: EFFECT/ENHANCED TO DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST OF
: BOTH LAKES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANY
: SUCH ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTHWARD AND FALLING
: APART DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW
: BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND STRONG LATE
: SUMMER DIURNAL INFLUENCES COME INTO PLAY.
: AFTER MORE GENERAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
: CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOME LIMITED
: ACTIVITY MAY THEN REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE
: LAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
: NIGHT...BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY MONDAY
: MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
: NORTHERLY...
:
: Yesterday I was optimistic about Sunday. The
: latest comparison of the 36 hour GFS and NAM
: 500 mb vorticity plots (much more accurate
: that the 72 hour) shows that they have now
: converged nicely (although that's no
: guarantee either) on a solution for tomorrow
: morning: a wicked swath of positive
: vorticity (= bad) right over western NY. Go
: figure.
:
: Alzeimer's....relentless.
:
: Ray
:
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