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Posted by Ray
on 8/7/2009, 6:35 am
69.205.81.50
The soaring weather has been improving all week long. Yesterday had fine conditions....beautiful, solid, flat and dark bottomed cumuli, were all over the sky, including the city of Rochester. Lake "shadow", a primarily springtime problem, is not so much now. Although we are nearly seven weeks past the summer solstice, Lake Erie is at it's warmest
http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/laketemps/TOTAL.htm
and Lake Ontario, being deeper, is still warming up. Cross country pilots needn't restrict their scenic or task ventures to the south of Dansville...now is a great time to enjoy the Finger Lakes region. Today may well turn out to be the best of the week. As long as the ridge axis is not east of us, there isn't any appreciable warm advection, which stabilizes the PBL. Each passing day, the ground is drier, the PBL deepens due to continued convective stirring, and thus the cloud base rises.
The ridge axis passes by us on Saturday, and things go downhill for the weekend, although not drastically so. "The System" (AKA local Rossby Wave) has slowed down, and Saturday won't be as bad as earlier progs indicated. Certainly both flyable and soarable, how good determined by a race between increasing sun angle during the day (good) and increasing upper level clouds (bad). Things do go more down hill on Sunday, although the models are still squeamish and untrustable. Best approach is to look out the window Sunday morning. I remember once in Albany it was pouring rain, whilst a local TV station was still "forecasting" 80% chance. My synoptic teacher lost it, called the station, and said "Could you please look out your window? It's RAINING...with a probability of 100%!"
Ray
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