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Posted by Ray
on 8/3/2009, 5:59 am
69.205.81.50
We have all had an anomalously long, cool, and too wet even for most farmers (particularly fruit and vegetable growers) weather marathon. Trying to predict the timing and position of the so-called Rossby waves which encircle the planet and determine the week-to-week weather is still very much an art: subtleties in global sea-surface temperature variations, cloud patterns, and soil moisture, together with a still-rudimentary knowledge of the many non-linear interactions which must be put into the computer models, all spell problems. Looking at the GFS 500 mb vorticity output all the way out to 180 hours with an optimistic eye for a change, one can infer a shift to a drier and more "average" regime, for the upcoming week and hopefully beyond. The all-important "level of non-divergent" (500 mb) flow is more or less zonal and even shows some ridging tendency towards this weekend. Better for all concerned and especially soaring pilots.
So, anyone interested in flying this week? No day is out of the question, with Thursday possibly being the best pick...of course that could change.
Ray
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