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Posted by Ray
on 7/29/2009, 8:27 pm
69.205.81.50
There is some interest for tomorrow, so here we go:
When it's foggy in the morning, it's almost never really good for afternoon soaring. Because to have fog means humid air and wet ground, and as this is written Dansville is getting soaked. The "storm total" estimated from radar (and such estimates are getting better and better) is over a half inch. So it's likely DSV will be socked in in the AM. And even if there's no fog, the ground is certainly wet. Ergo, maritime conditions. Puffy cu's with ragged bottoms (AKA sucker cu's). From the forcasted temps and dewpoints, one should have a 4,000' cloud base, but...those models don't know how wet the ground is. Another problem is the weak bubble high: not much synoptic scale subsidence to keep clouds forming and dissipating...ergo, over development may well occur, and if you are up when it does that, you are down.
How's that for pessimism? It's still possible for the later afternoon to feature soarable flights, even a couple of hours. But you will have to work. Certainly an excellent practice day. If I didn't have a tenant moving in I would come down and give it a shot just for the hell of it.
Ray
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