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Posted by Chuck Zabinski
on 6/28/2009, 7:19 pm, in reply to "Winch Weekend Forecast"
74.44.196.83
Although I didn't winch launch,(I aerotowed) Ray's prediction for the day was spot on. The lift was erratic and difficult to stay in until about 2:30 PM. The lift got better but, if you weren't at cloud base, it could be dicey at at 2,000 ft AGl. The winds aloft, according to my Winpilot software, were 17 kts. This accounts for the difficult soaring conditions because the thermals were being shredded by the wind. Good looking clouds were often not working when you arrived under them because of the wind factor. The result was that I never got further than 10 miles from DSV.
BTW: The US 390 culvert rework seems to be nearing completion with the posslbility that the project will be finished before the summer ends, and we will be able to take 390 to Dansville from Rochester without the Rte 36 detour. (My assessemnt from 4,000 ft AGL)
Looking forward to Soarfest and some better soaring!
Chuck Zabinski
--Previous Message--
: Summary: Saturday will be excellent for winch
: launching and instruction, both morning and
: afternoon. As for soaring, no usable
: thermals before 1 or 2 PM, if at all. Will
: require high aerotow, preferably to cloud
: base. Sunday also will not be a good soaring
: day, with a system moving in. Models differ
: as to timing...best case scenario is if
: overcast comes in late in the afternoon.
:
: Details: a good part of western NY has been
: drenched with over an inch of rain. So on
: Saturday, even though sunny, most of the
: sun's energy will be spent evaporating soil
: moisture, as opposed to heating the ground.
: Afternoon Cu's will surely
: form...essentially maritime clouds with weak
: lift except possibly right at cloudbase.
: This in spite of the fact that cold air with
: a favorable lapse rate will be advecting in.
: But the ground is relatively cold too. It
: is indeed possible to have strong boundary
: layer convection over water. That can happen
: only when the water has so much thermal mass
: that it can stay warm in spite of the
: incoming cold air. A perfect example of this
: is in September, when an outbreak of polar
: air comes out of Canada and bathes the
: entire eastern seaboard, and coastal water
: temperatures are still a couple of degrees
: from their maximum of over 70F. Then,
: satellite maps show, after a gap of 10 or 20
: miles, Cumulus bands offshore from Maine to
: Florida, both day and night. It would be
: quite possible under those conditions to fly
: that distance, which would be a world
: record, in a properly instrumented and
: staffed two-place sailplane, especially with
: an aircraft carrier backup. Homework
: question: why the gap?
:
: Ray
:
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