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Posted by Ray
on 6/23/2009, 6:46 am
69.205.81.50
Driving from Norwich to East Bethany yesterday morning, and continuing to observe the cloud field locally till they dissipated ~ 7:30, it was interesting to watch the early AM sucker cu's morph into flat-bottomed usable clouds by the afternoon. The term "maritime cumuli" would aptly describe the morning clouds, they look just like clouds over the ocean, for the obvious reason. During the weekend, Norwich had a flood watch going.
Pick day of the week for soaring will likely be Wednesday, for at least 7 reasons, starting with the obvious:
(1) soil will continue to dry out
(2) dewpoints will be a couple of degrees F higher on Wednesday, but the forecast high temperature will be nearly 10 F higher (mostly because of the drier ground). Knowing that the dry adiabatic lapse rate is 5.5 F per 1,000 feet, what does that tell you about the CCL (cloud condensation layer = cloudbase) on the two days?
(3) the synoptic low will by further away and weaker
(4) no significant WAA (warm air advection) aloft
(5) Winds near the top of the PBl will have a longer fetch across sill-cold Lake Ontario on Tuesday versus Wednesday
(6) There is a slight chance that CAPES (convective available potential energy) over the Niagara Peninsula could generate a thunderstorm there. That won't affect us directly, but we would be downstream from the cirrus blowoff, ergo dim sun.
(7) Friday won't be as good as Wednesday if the progs are correct and we get the rain expected for Thursday. But if the front comes thru dry...?
OK, let's do it!
Ray
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