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Posted by Mark Wass...
on 5/16/2009, 5:59 am, in reply to "Weekend of May 16, extended"
69.207.88.149
What are the vorticity maps Ray? Where can I view these?
Mark
--Previous Message--
: Saturday: obviously the worse of the two days.
: We may get in some morning instruction or
: demo flights during the "dry slot"
: , that is, after the passage of tonight's
: warm front and before the afternoon strong
: cold front. Hopefully the dry slot won't be
: MVFR as sometimes happens. The cold front
: will eventually shut us down in the
: afternoon, there is even a modest potential
: for all hell breaking loose (read: hail).
: Too bad we don't have metal ships rated for
: +/- 10g and IFR instruments, ‘cause if you
: took a 4,000' tow you would probably contact
: wave, the forecast has winds more or less
: perpendicular to the ridge all the way up to
: 39,000', speed 38 kts @ 6,000 increasing to
: only 58 kts @ 39,000. A most unusual, and
: ideal for wave, vertical profile. If you do
: have the equipment and cojones, better have
: your wool knickers too, temp at 39k will be
: ~ minus 76 F.
:
: Sunday: obviously the better pick. Cold
: front well downstream, VFR all day. Soaring
: will be good but probably not great,
: depending on how much rain the front dumps
: on us. We could get > half an inch,
: meaning the ground will generate
: "sucker cus" early on, but
: improving in the afternoon, with stronger
: conditions at 5 PM ("go-home time) than
: at noon. But nothing like last Tuesday.
: Morning NW wind is forecast to back to west,
: and brisk, in the PM, so ridge should
: work... and will surely kick off thermals to
: cloud base.
:
: Monday: normally I would have expected
: another diamond day like last Tuesday, since
: by then the ground will have dried out, and
: a 700 mb ridge is forecast to be upstream (=
: continuing cold advection aloft). Fly in
: the ointment is the evolution of flow at the
: all-important "level of non-
: divergence". Interested readers are
: invited to scroll thru the 500 mb NAM
: vorticity maps, starting at 0000 UTC
: Saturday: you see a trough over the midwest
: which deepens thru Sunday, then instead of
: passing to the east by Monday, has a big
: chunk of vorticity shearing off and sitting
: right over us on Monday afternoon. And if
: that 72 hr prog (at this time) verifies,
: kiss a really super day goodbye. Hope I'm
: wrong, still should be decent for the
: weekday flyers.
:
: Ray
:
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