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Posted by Ray
on 5/15/2009, 9:48 pm
69.205.81.50
Saturday: obviously the worse of the two days. We may get in some morning instruction or demo flights during the "dry slot" , that is, after the passage of tonight's warm front and before the afternoon strong cold front. Hopefully the dry slot won't be MVFR as sometimes happens. The cold front will eventually shut us down in the afternoon, there is even a modest potential for all hell breaking loose (read: hail). Too bad we don't have metal ships rated for +/- 10g and IFR instruments, ‘cause if you took a 4,000' tow you would probably contact wave, the forecast has winds more or less perpendicular to the ridge all the way up to 39,000', speed 38 kts @ 6,000 increasing to only 58 kts @ 39,000. A most unusual, and ideal for wave, vertical profile. If you do have the equipment and cojones, better have your wool knickers too, temp at 39k will be ~ minus 76 F.
Sunday: obviously the better pick. Cold front well downstream, VFR all day. Soaring will be good but probably not great, depending on how much rain the front dumps on us. We could get > half an inch, meaning the ground will generate "sucker cus" early on, but improving in the afternoon, with stronger conditions at 5 PM ("go-home time) than at noon. But nothing like last Tuesday. Morning NW wind is forecast to back to west, and brisk, in the PM, so ridge should work... and will surely kick off thermals to cloud base.
Monday: normally I would have expected another diamond day like last Tuesday, since by then the ground will have dried out, and a 700 mb ridge is forecast to be upstream (= continuing cold advection aloft). Fly in the ointment is the evolution of flow at the all-important "level of non- divergence". Interested readers are invited to scroll thru the 500 mb NAM vorticity maps, starting at 0000 UTC Saturday: you see a trough over the midwest which deepens thru Sunday, then instead of passing to the east by Monday, has a big chunk of vorticity shearing off and sitting right over us on Monday afternoon. And if that 72 hr prog (at this time) verifies, kiss a really super day goodbye. Hope I'm wrong, still should be decent for the weekday flyers.
Ray
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