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Posted by Ray
on 8/8/2008, 8:48 am
72.230.154.40
Saturday: Definitely the better day. May look iffy early AM but conditions should improve to solid VFR. Note: should, not will. Weak surface bubble ridge, hopefully good day for instruction, rides, and winch launches. Cumuli may pop up, but like last weekend they will be suckers, as the ground is so wet. Don't plan on getting very far from the field.
Sunday: MVFR most if not all day, possibly some chances to sneak in some winch launches. Both POPs and QPFs roughly double those for Saturday.
Details: The degree to which to TV forecasters will indulge in speculation just to please the viewing audience never ceases to amaze me. Many were, as far back as Monday, trying to predict which weekend day would be better. There is absolutely no scientific basis for this. If one takes the trouble to compare these "forecasts" with what actually happens 5 days later [called "model verification"], one finds such results are no better than looking at a climatological atlas for the respective location and meterological variables. Thus we observed flip-flopping all week: even yesterday there was still uncertainty, which is why I've delayed till today. As emphasized in last weeks discussion, if one looks at the GFS and NAM 500 mb vorticity loops, you could observe the models "changing their minds" during the course of the week as to the position of the vorticity maxima riding on the synoptic-scale low. This morning however the models have finally settled down, and both have significant maxima sitting over NYS on Sunday. Of course there's lots of other factors synopticians look at, but for beginners vort max timing is the easiest way to get a handle. One factor that can't be omitted this weekend, which is very different from last weekend, is the unusually cold air aloft. Which is why we had cumulus castellani yesterday [nice day for diamond altitude if you had the "right stuff"], and thunderstorms today.
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