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Posted by Mark Wass.... on 7/22/2008, 8:10 am, in reply to "Re: July 19, 20"
64.80.107.66
Denial is so convenient when is suite our purpose…..
--Previous Message--
: > since water vapor is by far the most
: important greenhouse gas.
:
: Something conviently ignored by the
: Moore/Gore camp.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Although GFS and NAM suggest Saturday as
: slightly better than Sunday, I have close to
: zero confidence in that, as explained below.
: Being totally in agreement this AM with NWS
: Buffalo, here's their synopsis:
:
: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
: SERVICE BUFFALO NY 357 AM EDT THU JUL 17
: 2008
:
: .SYNOPSIS... TYPICAL MID SUMMER WEATHER IS
: EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
: THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
: PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
: STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM AND
: INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. IT WILL
: REMAIN DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
: TIME...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
: AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
: AFFECT THE AREA ALMOST EVERY DAY.
:
: Details: If an elephant is walking slowly
: towards you, you can fairly accurately
: predict it's position, speed, and direction
: of travel two seconds into the future. Not
: so for a chipmunk. The Rossby waves which
: encircle the globe can be huge, with one
: wavelength and amplitude spanning half a
: continent. And the larger the waves, in
: general the slower they move. In extreme
: cases, they can retrogress (go backwards),
: for example hurricanes (which sit under big
: Rossbys) go wherever the hell they want
: to...east, west, north, south. Conversely,
: very small waves, which one finds now in
: midsummer superimposed on the general zonal
: (east-west) flow (because the jet stream is
: north of us), are ephemeral, skitterish,
: difficult for the models to handle since
: their puny amplitude is sometimes little
: more than the uncertainties (measurement
: inaccuracies) in the model input (GIGO). As
: mentioned in previous discussions here, to
: resolve small-amplitude features (such as
: tornadoes or large thunderstorms),
: high-density data grids, and high-frequency
: model runs, are required, but prohibitively
: expensive. So, what you see is what you get:
: Hot, hazy, humid days with slight chance of
: electrons, and not much cooling off at
: night, since water vapor is by far the most
: important greenhouse gas.
:
:
:
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