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Posted by Ray on 7/12/2008, 6:30 am
72.230.154.40
As I said on Thursday morning, stay tuned. Back then, I commented on the need for timely delivery of coffee at Buffalo NWS. That has verified. Sunday will be a washout, soaring wise, 95% confidence.
Details: as noted previously, the degree to which the NAM and GFS marched in lockstep out to 84 hours was unusual and, it turns out, prophetic. Always when a number of computer models are run forward it time, they diverge more and more the further out they go. But that divergence is fairly uniform, that is, if you plot, say, the position of the center of a hurricane for a bunch of models as time progresses, one sees what looks like a braided rope at first, then it becomes unraveled and eventually all the strands go all over the place. Those plots are called "spaghetti maps". But, the unraveling isn't abrupt but rather gradual as mentioned. It would have been extremely rare for the GFS and NAM to be locked together up to 84 hours, then go askance in just 12 hours. Or in other words, since Thursday morning's GFS for 96 hours had western NY still in the cold front crud (8 PM Sunday), one would have expected that the NAM would have agreed if pushed to the same time period. And they did, just look and compare their 48 hour progs today (for 8 PM Sunday)...wall-to-wall crud for most of NY State.
Just for fun I checked the Buffalo Forecast discussion. Our same friend, who on Thursday morning thought it might "dry out sharply in the afternoon with some clearing" now says "The latter two (GFS & NAM) show a slowing of the front during Sunday from their previous runs and this is a concern in regards to any clearing in west in afternoon as well as potential for heavy rain from about the Genesee Valley eastward..."
Actually the first part of this statement is simply not true...even the earlier runs showed a slowing down. Blaming the models for your own lack of caffeine is, well...priceless.
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