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Posted by Ray on 7/10/2008, 6:20 am
72.230.154.40
Friday: cloudy, weak possibly un-usable thermals under near overcast. SW wind too weak to work ridge.
Saturday: most definitely the best day of the three for soaring. Good afternoon thermals, check your blip. Too bad the 1-26 is the only one with an open canopy.
Sunday: first half of the day is MVFR or worse. BIG question is when will it clear?
Details: Obviously the approaching warm front is qoing to screw things up on Friday, what with the usual progression of cirrus, cirrostratus, altocumulus, altostratus, stratus, and whatever else to dim the sun. But by Satuday we will be well-ensconced in the warm sector and there will be plenty of sun to stir things up. Hydration will be key, we don't need any heat stroke. Then the cold front comes through on Sunday morning. We are now into the 84 hour prog, which is as far as the NAM goes. Up to this point, it is remarkable how well both the NAM and GFS agree...the positioning of the cold front is nearly identical 3.5 days out for both models...indicating they have a good handle on the actual fluid dynamics. Crucial to any hope of afternoon soaring is the timing of the clearing. Our friends at the Buffalo NWS don't really want to commit themselves yet, although one (SFM) thinks it may "dry out sharply in the afternoon with some clearing". Doubt it. Here it's essential to look at the so-called "level of non-divergence" (will elaborate sometime), which at our latitude is around 500 mb or 18,000 feet. Time-lapsing either the GFS 500 mb winds or vorticity (the latter especially germane), one can discern a marked slowing down and deepening of the developing trough...in 12 hours (from 8 AM to 8 PM) it's axis barely advances. If this model verifies, there is no way Sunday afternoon will be "nice". Oh well, perhaps the coffee and doughnuts haven't arrived yet. Stay tuned.
PS If someone with their own ship hasn't planned at least a Gold task for today, THEY need a cup of coffee!
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