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Posted by Ray on 6/20/2008, 10:51 am
72.230.154.40
Saturday: Definitely not a washout. Ridge should be working. Limited if any thermal soaring...unless of course you go IFR, are fond of electrons, and go for your Gold Altitude. So, come to the field. If you fall off the ridge, you can always blame windshear or whatever, then assuage your spirits with more of the same in the clubhouse.
Sunday: since meteorologists are responsible ultimately for crappy weather, since I have Ops, and since I am an essentially selfish SOB and to hell with everybody else, I have arranged for Sunday to be a loser. Maybe, if we're lucky, the overcast will be high enough for some up & down pattern flights. No ridge wind. And even in very light drizzle, you can sometimes see 3 miles. Or one mile. Any takers?
Details: Both GFS and Eta have Saturday morning solid VFR, and in fact the 21 hr RUC has us with no cloud cover at any level at dawn, so the day should at least begin with a sunny sunrise. That's because the deep longwave trough responsible for the leaky clouds all this past week finally lifts out, and allows for a shallow bubble high to form briefly in the essentially zonal flow developing at all levels. But then another long wave trough (Rossby wave...look it up for fun) forms and begins to dig (deepen), so that as Saturday progresses the quality of the VFR deteriorates. By 1200 UTC Sunday (8 AM) both GFS and NAM (=Eta) have it raining in far western NY, and all across the state by 0000 Monday. The QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) is showing over a quarter of inch throughout the day, so although no flood warnings will be issued, it's hard to see us doing much of anything in the air. Like I said, I have OPS. And by Sunday morning, if Roberts works his usual Mint Magic, we'll all be hung over anyway.
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