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Posted by Chuck Zabinski
on 6/14/2008, 10:24 am, in reply to "Weekend of June 14/15"
205.188.117.202
Dr. Cipriano is probably right but the BLIP Map prediction says Sunday should be pretty good with lift to 9,000 ft. Let's show up and see if Dr. Ramone or the BLIPS are correct.
Chuck Z.
--Previous Message--
: Saturday: Morning is kaput, IFR only. Should
: become VFR in the (late?) afternoon, maybe
: the ridge will be working...but no bets on
: this.
: Sunday: VFR all day, no question. But
: definitely no XC day, maybe even poor local
: soaring, depending.....
: Details: Both of our models push the cold
: front through by Saturday afternoon,
: although they disagree somewhat on when the
: associated precip will begin (how late on
: Friday, etc). That will bring some much
: needed rain, which in turn will result in
: weak afternoon thermals, although the
: gradient wind might allow for some ridge
: soaring. But that is problematic because in
: order to mix the geostrophic flow down to
: the surface, thermals are needed, and again
: the wet ground will mean they will be weak
: (maybe OK for butterflys). On Sunday,
: although no precip, the problem will be too
: much cloudiness. Lingering trough at 500 mb
: and lower will preclude significant synoptic
: scale subsidence, which is needed to achieve
: a balance between the cumuli forming from
: the weak convection, and the adiabatic
: compression and warming required to keep
: them from forming an overcast, thus shutting
: out the sun and stopping significant further
: convection (negative feedback loop, common
: in physiology too). Or, it may
: "cycle", and if you are lucky you
: will get towed up at just the right time.
: So, lots of luck!
:
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